Foreign Money In US Real Estate, A Historic Housing Shortage

Jason Hartman starts the show by presenting some statistics on foreign buyers of US real estate. He specifies which states have received the most and which nations have sent the most. After, he goes into a discussion on the housing shortage and what that means for real estate investors.

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Welcome to the creating wealth show with Jason Hartman. You’re about to learn a new slant on investing some exciting techniques and fresh new approaches to the world’s most historically proven asset class that will enable you to create more wealth and freedom than you ever thought possible. Jason is a genuine self made multi millionaire who’s actually been there and done it. He’s a successful investor, lender, developer and entrepreneur who’s owned properties in 11 states had hundreds of tenants and been involved in thousands of real estate transactions. This program will help you follow in Jason’s footsteps on the road to your financial independence day. You really can do it. And now here’s your host, Jason Hartman with the complete solution for real estate investors.

Jason Hartman 0:52
Welcome listeners from around the world. This is your host Jason Hartman with Episode Number 970 997 Nine. Thank you so much for joining me today. As I have talked about so many times over the years, the most highly desirable real estate market in the world is in the good old US of A Yes, the United States boasts the most attractive real estate investment market. Now, this may not always be true, but I certainly think it is still true. It has been true for many, many years. Of course, there are many reasons for this, the fact that data is much more transparent here than it is in many countries around the world. The bureaucracy and transaction costs are so much lower. I know we complain about bureaucracy and cost in the US. But the question is compared to what compared to what, it’s a lot better here than it is in many, many other places. And when you look around for the safe place to keep your money, the safe place to keep Money. If you are a wealthy or even in a middle or upper middle class, foreign national, you look around the world and you think boy, the USDA has some very attractive options. It’s always been known as the Brinks truck. And that’s why foreign direct investment in the US has been just phenomenal for many, many years. Now, this even happens in the face of a strong dollar. Of course, a strong dollar means that our real estate is more expensive to foreign investors, right. So they like to see it when their currency is strong and ours is weak. And of course, this is something that is always played out in the Import Export game. And we have a lot of stuff in the news now about trade wars, about tariffs, and about the trumpster. And I think you know, we’ll see what Trump does, but so far he is looking pretty protectionist. As you know, he is very much in favor favor of tariffs and charging an admission fee for people to trade in the US market to sell their widgets here. And of course, this is a two edged sword, because what it means is it means more American jobs, higher paying jobs, and we’re going to talk about that in a moment and what that means the housing market, but it also means that we will see higher prices. And I’ve talked about this extensively and why I think this moderately moderately only moderately protectionist policy is actually the best deal for Americans, right. It has all kinds of impacts and ramifications and intended as well as unintended consequences around the world. But it is really the best deal for for Americans. So we’ll see how it all plays out. Obviously, the pendulum swings every four to eight years, depending on the administration. And we’ll see what happens with it. But when we talk about foreign buyers buying us real estate, the statistics are pretty darn astounding. Let me share some of them with you from the National Association of Realtors here. This is last year this is 2017. What it says here in this little infographic, I’m looking at rising home prices and a stronger US dollar were no match, no match for increased demand that fueled a surge in foreign purchases of us real estate. In other words, foreign people and companies purchasing more and more us real estate. And again, I’ve talked extensively about this. I’ve been to 81 countries around the world. Hey, I’m just about to go. Well, I’ve already been to this one so it won’t increase my country count, but I’m about to go back to Sweden. For our Ice Hotel trip here in justo, whoa, what are we about nine days away very exciting. By the way I use hotel, I add venture Alliance people, we have an app for you for the Ice Hotel trip, we will be sending you a link to the app very shortly soon. So take advantage of that the event app, which will give you all of the information on the event, just like we did for meet the Masters, although it won’t have as much content in it, of course. But that app will be coming out for Icehotel people here just momentarily, so stay tuned for that. So I’ve traveled to all these countries around the world, many of them many times at one country’s total, unique country visits. And I’ll tell you something, the US is the place to invest and apparently, I’m certainly not alone. Billions and billions of dollars support my opinion. The top five countries have foreign buyers buying us real estate check this out. A total of 100 $53 billion in sales. Now when you talk about the price of housing, or real estate in general, you know, that number sounds big, but it’s not that big, I guess in the overall scheme of things because, hey, you know, $100,000 property or a $400,000 property or a million dollar property, you know, it adds up pretty quick. But hey, it’s still a lot of money. I’ll take it 150 $3 billion. It’s a lot. But here’s the amazing thing. Remember how I always tell you, it’s not the amount that matters? It’s the relationship that matters. No, I’m not talking about some mushy people relationship thing. I’m talking about the relationship to the prior number. The compared to what question that Jason Hartman question have compared to what that’s what matters. Well, here’s your compared to what 49% Whoa. A second. A shake. That is astonishing. It’s an astonishing number, a 49%, year over year increase 49%. Whoa, with a stronger dollar and rising home prices. So I see you, you folks in the US listening, that’s most of our listeners, but of course we have listeners from 165 countries, but most of you are in the US that are investing with us. You know, that’s the bulk of our clientele and a lot of Canadians high up there in the Great White north where, where so many good things come from, by the way, the most talented band in world history came from Canada. Yes, rush. So you folks are most of our buyers and listeners, but hey, we’ve got a lot around the world right. And we got rising massively increased real estate prices and a stronger dollar which means the foreign for nationals are paying, they’re getting double whammy. I mean, folks in the US think the price of real estate is getting too high. Imagine if your currency is also devalued compared to the currency in which you have to buy the property. It gets even more expensive. So for example, if you saw a 10% increase in prices, but the currency exchange could have made it a 20% increase, or even more, even dramatically more, that’s just an example. But for these foreign nationals, they’re still buying up are us real estate like it’s going out of style. So China spent $31 billion well around off $32 billion, rounding Canada 19 billion in the UK and the surveillance, politically correct. Scary Big brother is watching you, United Kingdom. scary scary what’s going on over there folks in the UK tell you, you got to get your government under control over there. I thought ours was bad. Yours is really out of control. Okay. Hey, you’re our friends over there. We love the UK. But man, your government is just getting out of control, kicking people out of the country for expressing their opinions. Whoa. cameras everywhere surveillance everywhere. The UK. It’s becoming pretty scary in the UK. Well, yeah, maybe you want to get your dollars out of there and get it to a safer place where it’s maybe maybe I’m not sure a little harder to seize your assets. $9.5 billion from you from Mexico, obviously a scary country where the government is you never had much in the way of rights over there. At least the UK pretends to have rights 9.3 billion from Mexico, in democratic India, where India you know you have a lot of rights over in India. But, hey, India has got its own problems because democracy has its inherent inefficiencies. And that’s why you can’t develop as fast as Communist China. Because, hey, if you want to build a new highway, or a new building or a whole new city, in China, you can just kick everybody out and tell them if they don’t move. They’ll just be arrested. It’s very efficient. Communism. Yes, very efficient. So India, you invested 7.8 billion. So where did all this foreign money this hundred and $53 billion, go? Right? Where did it go? In which states were these foreign nationals? buying the most property the most real estate? Well, Florida, number one, Texas, California, New Jersey and Arizona. Okay, those are kind of a likely suspects. So you know, the Europeans they will Buy a lot of stuff in Florida, the South Americans and the Mexicans will buy a lot of stuff in Florida. Well, California to Texas too. And you know, it’s just spread around the Canadians. The snowbirds are buying Arizona like crazy. So pretty darn interesting. what that says about the US market. Very, very attractive market. Okay, so I use hotel guests look for your app coming soon. Very excited about that. Once in a lifetime. Now sold out. We sold out the ice. Oh, I’m so excited. They have no more ice rooms there. So that’s coming up in just nine days here. So the Wall Street Journal. You know, I played this little clip for you this horribly sounding clip on the episode last week about the next housing crisis. Yes, the next housing crisis. The Wall Street Journal. Again, I’m looking at the article here, reporting that there is a history Sturrock shortage, a historic shortage, actually, is that proper grammar? oddly, it sounds right. But I think the way you’re supposed to say that is and historic shortage Hmm. Any grammar nazis out there let me know at Jason Hartman comm slash ask, is the Wall Street Journal wrong? Well, they say there is a historic shortage in new homes, fewer new houses are being built in America than at almost any time before. It’s a good time. Well, in this article takes place in Grand Rapids, their reporting and by the way, that’s one of our markets. We don’t talk about it too much cuz, hey, we’ve hardly got any inventory in Grand Rapids. We did just recently have a few notes available. And we haven’t had much inventory in this either. You know, those land contract deals. Yeah, a lot of you like those. Many of you have purchased them. Heck Our client, Damon just I believe just purchased one of mine that I sold. Yes, I’m wheeling and dealing from my own account here when I came to not just for clients, but mostly for clients. Obviously, there is a housing shortage, a housing shortage. So they’ve been keeping track of this new home construction for six decades, for 60 years of record keeping, according the Federal Reserve Bank and Kansas City, and they say that there is a historic shortage of housing. So that means to those of you who’ve been buying properties through our network for the past several years, maybe the past 1015 years, you’ve been buying properties nationwide. Maybe you bought them from me. Hopefully you did, because you probably got yourself a better deal. And you certainly got better support and better advice. I know that for sure. pat on the back. Do you hear that pat on the back So, if you did that, you are in the catbird seat. You are in a very enviable position. You know you are you know you are because Millennials are moving into the housing market. Millennials are in the renter market. Hey, look at the millennials. Right. So NAR just said that millennials are now the largest share of the home buying market. Now remember, several years ago I quoted that investors, investors were the largest share of the home buying market. Now, Millennials buying vast most of them are owner occupied buyers 36% of the market. But But wait, there’s more. Because that is just based on their sheerly huge numbers the largest demographic cohort in American history. 80 million strong bigger than the baby boomers. They now make up 36% of the home buying market. However, the question is, what’s the question? The question is compared to what compared to the fact that there are 80 million of them. A lot of them are still renting. And a lot of them will be forced to rent for much longer than they actually want to rent. Why, of course, we’ve explained that many times before, huge student loan debt, they got a mortgage without a house. And things are really different for that generation, the more portable generation, the sharing economy generation, a whole different mindset, a whole different view of so many things in life. The Millennials are truly a shift in thinking in so many ways, and hey, why wouldn’t they be? Look, their whole worldview is very, very different than my generation than the Gen X. Generation, certainly different from their parents, the baby boomers generation, very different worldview. Now 60 now out the 36% of millennials that make up the home buying market. 65% of them have that 36% are first time buyers buying their first home. It is a different world for sure. No question about that. Let’s take a break from housing for just a moment here and talk about something that I think is vitally important. And I promise I’m not going to get off on a big tangent here. I’m just going to tell you, I’m gonna let you hear it. You’ve heard it in the news. It’s all over the news media. The past Oh what 10 days or so maybe right. And it is Facebook. The second scariest company on Earth, facebook, facebook, facebook, facebook. They are in trouble. Yes, as they should be shame on Facebook, but shame on Google. And you know, it’s so interesting, because many of us read the book or are familiar with a book 1984 that was written What? In the 40s or 50s by George Orwell, this Orwellian future that many of us were right, rightfully, so concerned about, and rightfully so should be so concerned about. The interesting thing is, it didn’t quite happen the way or well predicted it, but it certainly happened. Now, if you’re in, you know, if you live in London, it’s definitely happened that way. The government is your big brother over there. The most camera surveilled, scary city, possibly on Earth. London. Right, right. I mean, because the thing that’s scary about it is it’s a wolf in sheep’s clothing. it purports to be a democratic place, right? But there are all these really, really shocking scary things going on with our friends in the UK. So I hope you get your government under control over there. We’ve got our own problems over here with our government being out of control. You know, remember, the new idea of government, you know, in the past 230 years ish, give or take, is that the government should be of the people, by the people and for the people and let that idea not perish from the face of the earth. We got to take back control once in a while and expose them for what they are. So the creator of the World Wide Web Well, yeah, I know some of you actually think that is Al Gore. It is not the disgusting hypocrite known as Al Gore. No, it is not the disgusting greedy hypocrite Al Gore. It is not. Mark Zuckerberg is not Sergey Brin and Larry Page At this scary company known as Google, right, it’s not Netscape. Okay. It’s Tim berners. Lee, right, Tim berners. Lee, was the guy that actually created Well, not the internet, even because the internet and the World Wide Web, there is a distinction between those two. Right. But, you know, he was there in the beginning, right, and didn’t make a fortune from it either, sadly, because, boy that has turned into quite a big deal. Quite a big deal. Thank you for coming up with this, you know, back to UCLA in 1969. And, and so many of these great things come out of the military industrial complex, you know, as much as we can hate the military industrial complex, which is a fair thing to hate. Right? A lot of great stuff comes out of it, because Necessity is the mother of invention. Well, Facebook, you know, Cambridge Analytica, blah, blah, blah. You’ve all heard the story, sharing our data. And now here’s the interesting thing. You You know, I always talk to you about these Wall Street firms and the banks, and the corporatocracy in general, you know, big business, right. So a little quick tangent here. But you know, I’m always always reading stuff, listening to audiobooks, and so forth. Lately, I’ve been reading the food babe. And Vani. Hari is her name Vani Hari, she’s great. She’s got some great material, exposing all the disgusting toxins in our food, and how these highly Well, sort of highly regulated companies. And this is my segue from the Facebook thing, and then we’ll talk about the fears about the upcoming recession. And we’ll close with that. The interesting thing is, is Facebook says they know that they’re going to be regulated, right? And Google secretly would love to be more regulated right? Because this is what happens with the food companies, the pharmaceutical companies Wall Street, the bankers, they all secretly pray for more regulation. Why do they do that? it’s counterintuitive. They do it because they know that more regulation and regulatory compliance burden can be afforded by them, they can afford it right? They can afford it, no problem. Yet, the new player that wants to come in and be the next Facebook or Google or the next Goldman Sachs, or the next Merrill Lynch, they can’t afford the cost of compliance. So they are kept out. So Facebook gets to put a huge wall. Yeah, just like the wall Trump wants to build at the border. Oh, god forbid a country has the right to protect its border. Listen, I’m no Trump fan. You know that. Okay. But, I mean, seriously, this is just logical. Don’t countries get to protect their borders, other countries do, but not the US. That’s evil. That’s evil. You can’t do it. So he We’ve got Zuckerberg and Sheryl Sandberg saying well, you know, we we know that we’re gonna face some regulations. Well, your company’s in you either gotta listen as a libertarian, I can’t believe I’m saying this sometime. But either these companies these big giant tech companies need to be split up under antitrust violations, or they need to be regulated like boring public utilities. It’s one or the other. I don’t see another solution because they are abusing us left and right. Google scariest company on Earth. Facebook second scariest company. I don’t know maybe I should flip flop the ranking there. We certainly love their products. We all use them probably. I sure do. And I love the innovation, but I’m telling you, these companies scare the crap out of me. Okay, so the food babe. I thought of this quote the other day and I put it on my Facebook got a lot of response from it. The quote for the day is and really think about this, think about it, but don’t let happened to you? Okay, because it’s happening to all of us try and limit the damage. Here it is. Our bodies are being used as toxic waste dumps for food and pharmaceutical companies. Our bodies are being used as toxic waste dumps for food and pharmaceutical companies. We are their guinea pigs and pay less we forget alcohol and tobacco companies also doing the same thing. So don’t let it happen. try and limit what these disgusting companies can do. They’re killing us. This is genocide. It is murderous, the stuff that these companies are putting into our food and try to avoid pharmaceutical drugs. Just get away from that stuff is toxic. I mean, Yes, I understand. There are people that have to take pharmaceuticals, okay. And you know, if you go through surgery You got to take some drugs, you know, I get it. Okay, you know, you have to do it sometimes, right? But just try and limit your exposure to this stuff. Okay? These things are toxic. Our bodies do not know how to handle them. They don’t know how to deal with them. We are being murdered. Don’t let these companies do it to us. Don’t let the companies like Facebook and Google take advantage of us hold them accountable. What do you do? Write your congressman. That’s probably a waste of time. But you get the idea. Just awareness. That’s all I’m saying. At least have some awareness about this stuff. Because it is scary. Read the food babes book. I’m gonna try and get her on the show her stuffs great. Love it. The food babe boy is the name of it. Okay, so let me wrap it up here with an article I saw recently. This was in investopedia. It’s by Milton is rotti. And I thought he wrote a really good piece about the fears of another recession and how they are unfounded now You know, I kind of go both ways on this. Look, I know there’s a business cycle. Of course there is, but you’ve heard me talk about it before. I don’t think we’re nearly as far into the business cycle, as many people think we are only because of the benchmark that was set during the Great Recession. That was an artificially low bar or low trough. So you can’t take it from the bottom and then say, Okay, we’ll, you know, five to seven years, we’re gonna have another recession. That’s just myopic thinking, Okay, there’s just way more to it than that. Okay. So in this article, it’s pretty interesting. I’ll just give you a couple highlights real quick before we wrap it up. He talks about how the economy shows no such signs of pre recessionary excesses in terms of spending and the debt levels compared to wage growth and finally love them or hate them but under Trump, we are seeing for the future. time in decades, legitimate inflation adjusted wage growth. It’s about time. Americans haven’t had a raise in decades in real dollar terms. Finally, we’re getting that. So if you’re a Democrat, if you’re for the little guy, if you’re for the underdog, then hey, maybe even if you hate Trump, which you have reason to, by the way, I get it. You know, he’s, he’s problematic. But even if you do, maybe you should write them a thank you note, you know, say thanks for your wages going up. All right. I know you’re not gonna do that. I’m just I’m just plugging. Yeah, I’m just teasing you write. The article says certainly American households, more than two thirds of the economy show nothing worrisome. Past recessions have often erupted because People had outspent three incomes, incurred excessive debts and had to cut back so they’d cut back then the spending stops and the business goes down. Stocks go down in the recession. There you go. There’s the spiral right there, right. Okay. So, so far in this recovery, people have shown none of this behavior. On the contrary, they have shown remarkable prudence, they have kept their spending in line with income, and though the level of debt has grown, it remains manageable relative to income and household assets. Indeed, if anything, the data suggests that during this slow recovery, households have put themselves on firmer economic and financial footings than before, okay, he talks about that now, he says I’m skipping ahead here. Meanwhile, composition of income shows improved economic and financial health. By the way, I want to throw in something here. While I throw in a lot. I hope you can tell when I’m reading and when I’m just on a tangent. Here’s one of those little divergence. FICO scores. Remember, we talked about that on a prior episode that FICO scores at the heart, the highest level they’ve been in many, many years. The average FICO score now is phenomenal, right? Okay. So, so that’s another component of it, because credit, the ability to borrow is an asset. And by the way, if your FICO score is too high, you are making a mistake because you’re not using Enough of your ability to borrow and secure more assets with that borrowing power. Okay, if you don’t use it, you’ll lose the benefit if you use it or lose it right? You lose the benefit of it. So, go buy some more properties. Okay, buy some more properties and leverage them. Alright. Meanwhile, the composition of income shows improved economic and financial health wages and salaries have outpaced other sources of income growing more than 3.5% a year during this time, wages and salaries in the private sector have done even better going growing at 3.8% per year. At the same time, reliance on government income support programs have lost significance. I’m clapping Yes, thank you. The welfare state is getting reined in a little bit, because we don’t have Obama the food stamp president, right. Okay. So income flows from unemployment insurance, for instance, have fallen almost 60% 60% What else does he say? Go to the next page here. How finances have improved according have improved accordingly. For sure Federal Reserve data shows that almost 6.5% growth in household debt during the last three years to a level of 15.2 trillion long ago passing previous highs. Okay, so hang on a second. Remember, you always got to adjust for inflation. Don’t forget that. Don’t forget that. Okay. Never forget that, by the way in in Al Gore’s Inconvenient Truth movie, The inconvenient lie that he doesn’t tell you. One of the many is he doesn’t adjust for inflation. How convenient. He doesn’t adjust for inflation. Okay. When he talks about the amount of damage due to crazy weather and hurricanes and stuff like that No inflation adjustment, how convenient al gore he left that up. But incomes have grown much faster than the annual overall income This country has risen actually, from 103% of outstanding debt in 2014. To about 108%. At last count, more telling are the figures of the relative burden of debt service. Now, that’s interesting. Why is that different? Think about it. When you buy a car or you buy a house, is it the price of the property? Or the price of the car that you are concerned with? Or is it the amount of the monthly debt service? Right? It’s the payment. It’s the debt service that matters, not the overall amount of the debt. Well, the overall amount of the debt does matter. It just doesn’t matter as much. It doesn’t matter from a budgeting perspective, like the overall amount of the debt, when does the overall amount of the debt start to matter? Well, when you want to sell The asset, then you’ve got that hundred thousand dollar mortgage, and you’ve got that property that’s worth $150,000. But if the mortgage was only $80,000, you’d have more equity, right? But I want to just propose this idea to you, especially when it comes to real estate. The amount of the debt on real estate actually determines to some extent, prices and price appreciation. That’s a Hartman ism. Just think about that. I don’t know if I’ve ever said it before. But I’ve certainly noticed it when I was in traditional real estate. And I would go over and list a home that a seller wanted to sell. They would always make the decision on whether or not they could even sell and what price they were willing to sell for based on the amount of debt they had on the property. So do you see when debt is high In many ways, it actually decreases inventory. Yeah, this is something we should smoke out more. I don’t know if I’ve totally smoked that out for you here. Let me just noodle on that one a little bit. By the way, if you have any feedback for me any questions you want to ask them by the way, I got a bunch of listener questions. We’ve got to get to Jason hartman.com slash ask Jason Hartman comm slash ask. And while I’m sending you to Jason hartman.com. Be sure to register for our upcoming creating wealth seminar in the northeastern United States our first time there. We’ve got a whole bunch of tickets sold. And we don’t even have a hotel announcement. Actually, I think we do. We got a gorgeous Hotel in Philadelphia. I think that contract may be signed. I’ll announce it soon. But anyway, yeah, that’s gonna be in May. I think what is the date like may 19. It’s the weekend before Memorial Day weekend. And we’re having our venture Alliance mastermind retreat in New York City. City on Memorial Day weekend. So we’re going to do those and I’m going to stay back east for the week in between the two. And that’s just going to be an awesome time can’t wait. So join us for that at Jason hartman.com. Ask your questions at Jason Hartman comm slash ask. Okay, let me finish this up. And we will adjourn for today. More telling are the figures on the relative burden of debt service. At last measure, the Federal Reserve as they calculate it, households dedicate some 10% of their after tax income to interest in principal payments on all debts down slightly from about 10.5%. That was registered five years ago, but nowhere near the 13% recorded just before the financial crisis. So do you see that even though the aggregate debt amount is slightly higher. And I think we had Richard Duncan on the show recently, he was talking about that the overall household debt, doom and gloom, it’s the end of the world, blah, blah, blah, but the amount of debt service, the payments on that debt is lower. And a lot of that debt is fixed interest. So even as rates spike up, you’re not going to have to worry about it. Okay. So, yeah, you know, I have to agree with the author. I’m not super concerned about any big recession coming. There will be a recession, the economy, the whole global economy is built on smoke and mirrors. It’s a house of cards. Don’t get me wrong. I have no Pollyanna view of that whatsoever. I will just say, compared to what, right? The US economy compared to what you know, overall, the banks in terms of mortgages have been pretty darn concerned. This time around, there’s a massive housing shortage. We talked about that earlier. The rental market is booming. I mean, it’s it’s phenomenal. rents are going up, up, up, up up. Yes, they’re a little bit softened in some of the institutional apartments because they’ve overbuilt a little bit, but that’ll equalize the supplies getting absorbed. And they’re not that soft. It’s the small softening in some of these major cities where you’ve seen cranes everywhere in the building apartments like crazy, but not true in the single family homes at all. The rental market is booming. I think we got some good sunshine to come for quite a while here. But you know, hey, rates are going up a bit. We will see some slowing and like I said, I’d I’d welcome a bit of a slowdown. I just hope I don’t regret saying that. I said a bit. Not too much. I just want a little slow down just a little. Okay, so you can have a little more inventory of investment properties to buy. Go take a look at our properties at Jason hartman.com. Click on the properties section and talk to one of our investment counselors and let them help you. And by the way, if you’re out there listening and you have any problems or challenges with your portfolio, reach out to us. We’re here to help for life. Okay? If you bought a property from us five years ago, eight years ago, and you’re having some trouble with your property manager, your local market specialist, reach out to us. That’s what we are here for. You have an investment counselor that will help you they will help you with rental coordination. They’ll help you with anything you need. So reach out to us go to Jason Hartman comm slash ask for questions and feedback, and we will talk to you on the next episode.

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